January 5, 2024

Real Estate Market Forecast: Opportunities for Home Buyers and Sellers in 2024

A growing share of home buyers and sellers sat on the sidelines last year as the pace of home sales continued its downward trajectory.1 In fact, since the Federal Reserve began its series of interest rate hikes in 2022, the combination of higher borrowing costs and record-high home prices has fostered the steepest real estate market slowdown since the 2008 recession.2

 

Priced out of the market, a generation of would-be buyers has been forced to delay their plans for homeownership.3 At the same time, current owners—reluctant to give up their pandemic-era mortgage rates—are waiting to sell, which has resulted in a sharp drop in listings.4

 

But there may be some relief in sight: In December, the Fed signaled that it was done raising interest rates—and suggested that it could cut rates by 0.75% over the coming year. While mortgages don’t directly follow the federal funds rate, they typically move in tandem—so cheaper home loans may finally be on the horizon.5

 

Lower mortgage rates should bring some much-needed movement back into the real estate sector. But with a market this fluid, the home buyers and sellers with an edge will be those who proactively leverage a real estate agent’s on-the-ground expertise and stay flexible so that they can quickly adapt to changes.

 

What does that mean for you? Read on to learn more about the current state of the U.S. housing market, the potential opportunities for buyers and sellers, and economists’ predictions for the year ahead.

 


 

HOME PRICES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE

 

Not even 8% mortgage rates could bring home prices crashing down in 2023, as some prospective home buyers may have hoped. In fact, on average, U.S. property values ended the year higher—with declines in some areas of the country offset by appreciation in others.6

 

Prices typically fall when rising interest rates drive down demand. So what’s keeping home values high?

 

Mike Simonsen at Altos Research points to a nationwide housing shortage: “Declining home prices probably require that supply-and-demand imbalance, and what we have is really a balance. There's a balance between low demand and low supply.”7

 

Analysts expect that equilibrium to continue to prop up home prices in 2024, although the specific forecasts vary. For example, economists at Realtor.com predict that the median home price will fall slightly, by 1.7%, while those at Fannie Mae project modest price growth of 2.8%.6,8

 

However, experts widely agree: Mortgage rates will be the largest driver of property values. If rates fall faster than expected, more buyers will enter the market—which could send home prices soaring higher.

 

What does it mean for you?  There’s no evidence that home prices are headed for a major decline. So if you’re ready and able to afford a home, this is a great time to test the waters. The best bargains are often found in a slower market, like the one we’re experiencing right now. Contact us to discuss your goals and budget. We can help you make an informed decision about the right time to buy.

 

And if you’ve been waiting to sell your home, this could be your year. Price growth has slowed, so now is the time to maximize your equity gains while minimizing your competition. Contact us for recommendations and to find out what your home could sell for in today’s market.

 

 


MORTGAGE RATES SHOULD FINALLY TREND DOWN

 

The best news we've got incoming for 2024? The extra-high mortgage rates that have weighed heavily on the real estate market may finally be headed south.

 

At its December meeting, the Fed signaled that the worst is likely behind us and that it expects to cut its overnight rate in 2024. Analysts predict that mortgage rates will fall in lockstep.5

 

“Given inflation continues to decelerate and the Federal Reserve Board’s current expectations that they will lower the federal funds target rate next year, we likely will see a gradual thawing of the housing market in the new year,” said Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist Sam Khater following the announcement.9

 

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has already declined from an October high of around 8%, and analysts at Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and Realtor.com all forecast that rates will trend down this year, ending 2024 closer to 6%.7

 

However, it’s not all good news: It appears that the days of 3% mortgage rates are firmly behind us. “As long as the economy continues to motor along, the new normal of higher rates is here to stay,” explains Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate.4 So, when it comes to a home loan, borrowers may need to adjust their expectations.

 

What does it mean for you? If you're a prospective home buyer, declining mortgage rates could give you the opportunity to lock in a more affordable monthly payment. And if you purchase before the market reheats, you could secure an especially good deal. To find the lowest rate, it pays to compare lenders. Ask us to refer you to a mortgage broker who can help you shop around for the best option.

 

Sellers also have reason to celebrate buyers' lower interest rates: As the barriers to entry to the housing market decline, they could enjoy more or better offers. Reach out to discuss how we can help you maximize your home’s sales potential.

 

 


LOWER RATES WILL BRING SOME BUYERS AND SELLERS BACK TO THE MARKET

 

Over the past couple of years, higher mortgage rates have cooled home buyer demand. They’ve also delayed the plans of many home sellers, who have been reluctant to trade in their current mortgages for loans that are several points higher.

 

With so many market participants playing the waiting game, the real estate sector has slowed significantly. National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun estimates that the number of existing home sales fell by 18% last year following a 17% decline in 2022.10

 

However, as financing costs tick down, sales volume is expected to rise. “Lower mortgage rates would help spur home sales activity, which [is] expected to increase in 2024 compared to 2023,” explains Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic. “Declines in mortgage rates will drive more sellers to trade their existing home and help add much-needed inventory to the market, leading to more transactions.”4

 

There’s also evidence that the patience of holdout home buyers may be waning, despite higher borrowing costs. A recent survey by Bank of America found that the number who are willing to wait for prices or mortgage rates to decline before making a purchase fell from 85% to 62% in just six months.11

 

“When it comes down to it, if buying a home is your goal and within your budget, the best time to buy is when you're ready financially and you can find a home that fits your needs,” Matt Vernon, head of consumer lending at Bank of America, advised in a recent release. “Even in the current interest rate environment, there are clear benefits to purchasing a home and beginning to build equity.”11

 

What does it mean for you? If you’ve been waiting to buy a home, you might want to consider purchasing before the competition picks up. Pent-up demand could bring a flood of buyers back into the market as mortgage rates decline. Contact us if you’re ready to begin your home search.

 

If you’re hoping to sell this year, you may also want to act fast. An increase in listings will make it harder for your home to stand out. We can help you chart the best course to maximize your profits, starting with a professional assessment of your home’s current market value. Reach out to schedule a free consultation.

 


 

THE HOUSING SUPPLY SHORTAGE WILL PERSIST

 

Will home buyers who are eager for options have more homes to choose from this year?

 

Yun thinks so. He believes sellers will soon grow weary of waiting to list. “Pent-up sellers cannot wait any longer. People will begin to say, ‘life goes on,’” the NAR economist speculated at a November conference. “Listings will steadily show up, and new home sales will continue to do well.”10

 

But not everyone agrees. Economists at Realtor.com forecast that inventory could drop by as much as 14% this year. The decline in existing homes for sale has been compounded by a persistent shortage of new construction, with single-family housing starts falling 10.3% in 2023 and 11.2% in 2022.6

 

Even so, newly-built homes are playing an increased role in easing the supply crunch, accounting for around one-third of all homes for sale in 2023—which was twice the historical average.12 But new construction alone isn’t expected to fill the inventory gap.

 

According to First American Financial Corporation’s Chief Economist Mark Fleming, the U.S. currently has a shortfall of around one million homes, and conditions won’t ease until individual owners re-enter the market. “Only when more homeowners decide to sell, and then buy again, will housing supply and the pace of sales return to anything resembling normal.”13

 

​​What does it mean for you?  Inventory remains tight, but buyers can benefit from the search expertise of a real estate professional. We can tap our extensive network to access off-market and pre-market listings while helping you explore both new construction and existing homes in our area.

 

While sellers will continue to benefit from the low-inventory environment, they should be prepared to compete against brand-new homes. We can help you prep your property for the market and highlight the features most likely to appeal to today’s buyers.

 

 

WE'RE HERE TO GUIDE YOU

 

While national real estate forecasts can give you a “big picture” outlook, real estate is local. And as local market experts, we know what's most likely to impact sales and drive home values in your neighborhood. As a trusted partner in your real estate journey, we'll keep our ears to the ground so that we can guide you through the market's twists and turns.

 

If you’re considering buying or selling a home in 2024, contact us now to schedule a free consultation. Let’s work together and craft an action plan to meet your real estate goals.

 



The above references an opinion and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be financial, legal, or tax advice.Consult the appropriate professionals for advice regarding your individual needs.

 


Sources:

1.     CNN -
 https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/19/homes/existing-home-sales-september/index.html

2.     Goldman Sachs -
 https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2023/10/23/2d814362-a656-4cb3-8586-bea8591188e3.html

3.     ABC News -
 https://abcnews.go.com/US/millennials-priced-homeownership-feeling-pressure/story?id=105032436

4.     Bankrate -
 https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/housing-market-2024/

5.     CBS News -
 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/interest-rates-are-paused-heres-why-thats-good-news-for-homebuyers/

6.     Realtor.com -
 https://www.realtor.com/research/2024-national-housing-forecast

7.     NerdWallet -
 https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/mortgages/2024-homebuying-trends-property-line-november-2023

8.     Fast Company -
 https://www.fastcompany.com/90991612/home-price-2024-outlook-fannie-mae

9.     Freddie Mac - 
 https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-drop-below-seven-percent

10.  National Association of Realtors -
 https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-chief-economist-lawrence-yun-forecasts-existing-home-sales-will-rise-by-15-percent-next-year

11.  Bank of America -
 https://newsroom.bankofamerica.com/content/newsroom/press-releases/2023/12/bofa-report-shows-fewer-prospective-homebuyers-willing-to-wait-f.html

12.  Marketplace -
 https://www.marketplace.org/2023/11/27/mortgage-rates-new-home-sales/

13.  First American -
 https://blog.firstam.com/economics/whats-the-outlook-for-the-housing-market-in-2024

The True Cost of Homeownership: What You Pay Beyond the Mortgage

February 2, 2026
When most homebuyers calculate whether they can afford a new home, they focus almost exclusively on one number: the monthly mortgage payment. It's the figure lenders qualify them for, the number discussed during showings, and the benchmark used to determine budgets. The average annual cost of owning and maintaining a single-family home in the U.S., excluding the mortgage itself, is estimated at around $21,400 in 2025—roughly $1,800 per month.¹ When you factor in these national average ownership expenses, a $2,500 monthly mortgage can grow to over $4,000 in total housing costs. for a mortgage answers one question: "Can a bank trust you with this loan?" It doesn't answer the more important one: "Can you comfortably maintain this lifestyle?" In today's market, where nearly 45% of homeowners report post-purchase regrets (most commonly because maintenance and hidden costs were higher than expected), understanding the full financial picture before buying has never been more important.² The Predictable Ongoing Costs Property Taxes Property tax bills have been rising sharply nationwide, with the average reaching $4,271 in 2024 and many homeowners seeing increases of 16% or more. 3 Even where tax rates dip slightly, rising home values keep actual bills climbing—creating the irony that a home's appreciation increases annual expenses. Property taxes aren't truly fixed. Reassessments happen regularly, and as neighborhood values rise, so do tax bills—even when rates stay the same. Homeowners Insurance As of December 2025, the average premium for a new policy rose 8.5% year-over-year . 4 Climate disasters, higher rebuilding costs, and insurer risk recalibration continue driving these increases, and the trend shows no signs of reversing. A homeowner could see their monthly payment jump $200-300 in a single year without taking any action themselves—simply because their mortgage servicer adjusted the escrow to cover higher insurance premiums. HOA Dues About 40% of homes for sale have HOA fees, with median costs around $125 per month, though single-family homes typically range from $200-$300 monthly.⁵ These fees rarely decrease and often include special assessments that can add thousands in unexpected annual costs. Utilities In 2024, energy and utility costs averaged $4,494 annually, with internet and cable adding another $1,515. 1 Buyers moving from apartments to single-family homes often see these costs double due to increased square footage, outdoor irrigation, and climate control demands. Routine Maintenance Beyond emergencies, homes require ongoing care: lawn service, gutter cleaning, pest control, HVAC servicing, and seasonal tasks. These aren't luxuries for many households—they're practical solutions to time constraints and property upkeep. Collectively, these services can add $200-400 monthly to ownership costs. The Irregular—but Inevitable—Expenses Major System Replacements This is where many homeowners get caught off guard. Maintenance and repairs aren't a matter of "if" but "when"—and recent years have made "when" far more expensive. Home maintenance now averages around $8,800 annually, with first-year homeowners often facing even higher costs. 1,6 Major repairs aren't cheap: ● HVAC replacement: $5,000-$10,000 ● Roof replacement: $8,000-$15,000 ● Water heater: $1,200-$2,500 ● Foundation repairs: $4,000-$12,000 These aren't possibilities—they're certainties with varying timelines. Use the inspection as a planning tool. A 15-year-old water heater or aging roof signals $8,000-12,000 in likely expenses within the first few years. That's not a deal-breaker—it's a budget roadmap. Buyers who understand these timelines can plan strategically instead of scrambling when systems fail. Newer isn't maintenance-free. Newer builds offer a temporary reprieve, but systems still age, warranties expire, and eventually every home requires major capital improvements. Emergency repairs happen at the worst times. An HVAC failure during a heat wave, a burst pipe in winter, or storm damage to the roof—these scenarios happen when it's least convenient and most expensive. Without liquid reserves, a single emergency can derail finances entirely. Ownership Costs That Creep Up Over Time Here's what surprises many first-time buyers: the so-called "fixed costs" of homeownership aren't actually fixed. While a locked-rate mortgage provides payment stability, the escrowed components—taxes and insurance—can climb significantly year over year due to inflation, climate risk, and local policy changes. A mortgage payment that felt comfortable at closing can feel tight three years later, even without lifestyle changes. Picture this: a letter arrives saying the monthly payment is increasing $200 because insurance premiums rose and the property was reassessed at a higher value. No move, no refinance, no renovation—yet annual housing costs just jumped $2,400. The same gradual creep affects utilities, maintenance services, and every other aspect of homeownership. Budgeting for homeownership means expecting these costs to rise 3-5% annually. True stability requires planning for volatility. Planning Smarter: How Homeowners Can Stay Ahead The encouraging news: buyer's remorse is largely preventable. The issue isn't buying the wrong house—it's buying without adequate preparation. Create a Dedicated House Repair Fund Separate from emergency savings, this fund exists solely for home maintenance and repairs. Treat it like a non-negotiable monthly bill—set up automatic transfers so it happens without thinking about it. The old rule of saving 1% of your home's value annually? It's outdated. Plan for more—closer to 2-3% of your home's value annually, or whatever amount lets you sleep at night knowing the HVAC won't derail your budget. Don't Drain Your Savings at Closing Cash reserves protect against surprises and prevent forced debt when repairs arise. If possible, keep several thousand dollars liquid after closing rather than putting every available dollar into the down payment or upgrades. That breathing room matters more than most buyers realize. Invest in Preventative Maintenance Annual HVAC servicing, gutter cleaning, and seasonal inspections catch small problems before they become expensive emergencies. A modest service call that prevents a major system failure is always worthwhile. Create a seasonal maintenance calendar: HVAC checkups in spring and fall, gutter cleaning before winter, roof inspections after major storms. Consistency prevents costly surprises. Know Your Home's Systems and Timelines Understanding when major systems were last replaced helps predict future expenses. A 12-year-old water heater isn't an emergency today, but it signals a likely expense within 2-3 years. Planning beats scrambling. When Homeownership Still Make Sense Despite the expenses, homeownership remains one of the most powerful wealth-building tools available to American families—when approached correctly! Long-Term Equity Building Mortgage payments build equity with every payment. Unlike rent, ownership creates a forced savings mechanism that compounds over decades. In most markets, homes appreciate over time, multiplying the wealth-building effect. Stability and Control Homeowners control their living environment. Want to renovate the kitchen, paint the walls, landscape the yard, or install solar panels? Ownership provides autonomy that renting never will. That control has both lifestyle and financial value. Predictability vs. Rent Volatility While ownership costs rise gradually over time, rent increases can be sudden and dramatic—with national rents climbing 31% over the past five year. 7 A fixed-rate mortgage provides payment predictability that renting cannot match. Yes, taxes and insurance increase, but the principal and interest portion—typically 60-70% of the total payment—remains locked. Renters face volatility on 100% of their housing costs. Lifestyle Benefits Beyond finances, homeownership offers intangible benefits: deeper community roots, stability for families, space for hobbies, and the pride of building something that's truly yours. These benefits have real value, even if they don't appear on a balance sheet. The key is ensuring the financial foundation supports the lifestyle, not undermines it. A Better Way to Think About Affordability The true measure of affordability isn't what a lender will approve—it's what allows sleeping well at night when the water heater fails or the insurance premium spikes. The smartest buyers calculate affordability as "mortgage plus carrying costs" from the start, which might narrow the price range slightly but creates breathing room and peace of mind. Homeownership remains one of the most powerful wealth-building tools available, but only when approached with financial realism rather than maximum leverage. Having an honest conversation about what affordability truly looks like isn't about limiting dreams—it's about making sure those dreams don't become financial nightmares. Sources: 1. Bankrate: https://www.bankrate.com/home-equity/hidden-costs-of-homeownership-study/ 2. Bankrate: https://www.bankrate.com/f/102997/x/c84a6b9359/homeowner-regrets-survey-press-release.pdf 3. Matic: https://matic.com/blog/2026-home-insurance-predictions/ 4. NAHB: https://www.nahb.org/blog/2025/12/property-taxes-2024-residential/ 5. Realtor.com: https://www.realtor.com/research/homeowners-associations-2024/ 6. Inman: https://www.inman.com/2026/01/12/as-home-maintenance-costs-rise-agents-turn-to-tools-that-reduce-buyer-risk/ 7. Rentec Direct: https://www.rentecdirect.com/blog/new-data-shows-the-state-of-rent-in-2025-from-rentec-direct/ 

2026 US Housing Market Forecast: Will the Market Find Its Footing?

January 5, 2026
Will 2026 be the year buyers stop waiting? Forecasters are split, predicting anywhere from 1.7% 1 to 14% 2 growth in home sales. That 12-point gap reveals the central question facing the housing market: how much will slightly lower mortgage rates and slowly eroding lock-in effects actually unlock pent-up demand? Nearly every major forecaster agrees the market will be more active than 2025. But beyond that consensus, predictions diverge sharply on pace and scale. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects robust 14% sales growth. Realtor.com sees a modest 1.7% bump. Both could be right for different markets and price points. For anyone planning to buy, sell, or simply understand their home equity position in 2026, these diverging forecasts matter less than the underlying fundamentals. Mortgage rates should settle slightly lower. Inventory will improve modestly. Prices will continue rising, though more slowly than recent years. The market is thawing. More importantly, the housing market appears to be returning to the pace and rhythm of more normal conditions after the artificial volatility of the pandemic era. The 2025 Context: Why the Market Stayed Frozen The 2025 housing market disappointed. Mortgage rates remained stubbornly above 6.5%, suppressing demand and keeping transaction volumes near historic lows. 8 As of mid-2025, more than 80% of U.S. homeowners hold mortgage rates below 6%, reinforcing the lock-in effect that has kept many would-be sellers on the sidelines.³ Affordability challenges reached acute levels. The typical first-time buyer aged to 40 years old 4 , reflecting simple math that monthly payments at elevated rates and prices pushed homeownership out of reach for younger buyers. The market did not crash but did not heal either, with overall transaction volume remaining constrained. 2026 Predictions: Where Forecasters Agree and Disagree Mortgage Rates: Consensus on Modest Improvement Forecasters agree broadly on mortgage rate trajectories. Expectations cluster tightly in the 6.0% to 6.4% range, representing modest but meaningful improvement from 2025 levels.  2026 Mortgage Rate Forecasts

Planning Your 2026 Real Estate Moves: A Guide to the Best Buying and Selling Seasons

December 2, 2025
Timing isn’t everything in real estate, but it can mean the difference between saving $20,000 or paying a premium, selling in 30 days or waiting three months, and negotiating from a position of strength or uncertainty. As we look toward 2026, understanding seasonal patterns has become more critical than ever. With inventory levels normalizing and market conditions continuing to evolve, knowing when to make your move can dramatically impact your outcome. Whether you're a first-time buyer watching every dollar or a seller trying to maximize your profit, the season you choose matters. The challenge? Not everyone can wait for the "perfect" time. Job relocations happen in January. A growing family needs more space in July. Retirement doesn’t wait for spring. This guide breaks down the pros and cons of each season so you can make the smartest decision within your timeline. Spring: Peak Selling Season (March-May) Spring isn’t called peak season by accident. The housing market comes alive with energy that is impossible to ignore. Data shows homes listed in spring sell in as few as 33 days, compared to 49 days in winter. 1 May also offers the highest seller premium, 13.1% above market value, translating to faster sales and higher returns. 2 Buyer psychology also plays a role. Warmer weather encourages open house attendance, longer daylight allows more viewings, and families aim to move before school starts, creating urgency. Spring blooms and greenery boost curb appeal in ways winter staging cannot match. 3 The Competition Factor The trade-off is that spring’s advantages come with more competition. Sellers must make their homes stand out, pricing correctly, staging well, and marketing aggressively. Buyers benefit from the largest inventory, with new properties listed weekly, but face higher competition. In May and June, 35% of buyers pay above list price compared to 24% in January, making bidding wars common and increasing pressure to decide quickly. 4 Summer: Extended Peak Season (June-August) As spring transitions to summer, the market maintains its momentum. June often sees the highest sales volume of the year, with more than 16,500 homes selling per day. 1 The Family Timeline Summer’s appeal aligns with family schedules, as school breaks let children move without disrupting education. Warm weather and long days make moving easier and provide ample time for viewings. Outdoor spaces like pools, patios, and landscaping are at their best. Higher prices and sales activity reflect the premium buyers pay for peak-season convenience. Late Summer Shifts By August, changes appear. Unsold spring or early summer listings may become “stale,” and buyers begin settling as school starts. Competition eases slightly, though prices stay high, making it a transition month where patient buyers can benefit. A practical concern is moving costs, which peak in summer due to high demand. Nearly half of all household moves occur between June and August, increasing competition for movers and rental trucks alike. 5 Fall: Underrated Opportunity Season (September-November) Fall might be real estate's best-kept secret. While conventional wisdom suggests spring is the only time to transact, savvy buyers and sellers increasingly recognize fall's unique advantages. Less Competition, More Serious Players Data shows a large share of home sales occur in the fall, a detail often overlooked. With fewer competing sellers, listings stand out more, and active buyers tend to be serious and ready to act quickly. 3 October typically offers the best conditions for buyers. Data shows it has one of the lowest seller premiums of the year—about 8.8% above market value—as demand cools and competition eases. 2 Home prices also tend to dip slightly from summer highs, saving buyers thousands compared to peak-season purchases. 4 For first-time buyers especially, fall can be an ideal time to find value without the bidding wars of spring and summer. The Urgency Factor Fall brings natural urgency. Buyers aim to close before holidays and bad weather, while sellers may be motivated by taxes or avoiding a winter listing. Comfortable weather in many areas makes showings easier. Fall buyers are often more decisive, with fewer casual browsers and more serious purchasers ready to negotiate. Winter: Value Season (December-February) Winter gets a bad reputation in real estate, but for buyers with flexibility, it offers the year's best value proposition. The Numbers Don’t Lie The low-competition environment in winter provides the best opportunity for buyers to secure a discount. In January, only 24% of buyers pay above list price compared to 35% in May and June, which greatly reduces the chance of bidding wars. 4 This lower competition also means winter homes stay on the market longer, averaging 49 days versus 31 days during peak season, giving buyers more time, less pressure, and stronger negotiating power. 1 Motivated sellers become more flexible as the holidays pass. Moving companies also offer their lowest rates in winter. Winter’s Challenges Winter has trade-offs. Sellers face the lowest buyer traffic, holiday distractions, limited curb appeal from dormant landscaping, and shorter daylight for showings. Yet winter offers advantages. Less competition can help if you price aggressively and present well, and buyers who do visit are highly motivated, often relocating for jobs. Warm-climate markets like Florida and Arizona see smaller winter slowdowns, making location important. 1 Snow and ice create safety hazards, and cold weather makes moving harder. However, winter also reveals property truths, such as heating efficiency, drafty windows, and roof performance, which is all information savvy buyers use during inspections. Regional Differences: Not All Markets Are Equal Seasonal changes in the real estate market depend heavily on location, meaning a strategy that works in one city may fail in another. Markets in the Midwest and Northeast experience the most dramatic seasonal swings due to harsh winters, which push most activity into the short window between May and August. For example, daily home sales in the Midwest often more than double from January to June, with states like Illinois and Ohio seeing significant annual price swings. In contrast, Southern and Western markets enjoy stable, year-round activity because of mild weather. Places like California and most of the South see much less severe slowdowns in winter. The exception markets are those where mild winter weather attracts buyers, like Phoenix, Arizona , where the best selling time is late November. Understanding these local patterns is crucial, as local market dynamics always matter more than general national statistics. Feel free to reach out if you would like to know more about the specific seasonal patterns in your local area. Pricing Strategies by Season Pricing strategy must adapt to seasonal realities. What works in May fails in December, and vice versa. Spring and Summer Pricing During peak season, competitive pricing often attracts multiple offers. Pricing strategically 10–15% below comparable sales can spark competition and push final offers above list. Psychological pricing also matters; listing slightly under round numbers ($349,000 instead of $350,000) increases online visibility and appeals to buyer behavior. Emphasizing seasonal features such as outdoor spaces, natural light, and blooming gardens helps justify premium pricing. 3 Fall Reality Check As competition declines in fall, pricing should be more realistic. Listing slightly below spring comparables can help generate activity. Flexibility on price attracts serious year-end buyers eager to close before the holidays and bad weather. Recognizing buyer urgency allows you to price strategically rather than reactively. 2 Winter Aggression Winter requires more aggressive pricing to attract a smaller buyer pool. Pricing 5–10% below spring values can create immediate interest. Motivated sellers should focus on value over premium pricing. Buyers shopping in January aren’t bargain hunters, they’re seeking homes that justify moving during an inconvenient season. 1 Year-round best practices stay consistent: use a Comparative Market Analysis, consider current market conditions, account for unique property features that algorithms may overlook, and monitor comparable sales while staying open to adjustments. Buyer Offer Strategies by Season Spring and Summer Competition Peak season requires quick, confident action. Get pre-approved to show you’re a serious buyer and be ready to move fast. Consider offering above asking price when you find the right property, and use an escalation clause to outbid competitors up to your limit. Flexible closing dates also strengthen your offer. Some buyers write personal letters to create emotional connections. Fall and Winter Leverage Negotiating power shifts with the seasons. In fall and winter, when seller competition drops and buyer pools shrink, you gain leverage. You can more easily request seller concessions such as closing costs, home warranties, repairs, or even appliances and fixtures. Use inspection results to negotiate price reductions, as motivated sellers grow more flexible later in the season. You can also request longer inspection periods and winter move-in credits.¹ Year-Round Negotiation Fundamentals No matter the season, understanding the seller’s motivation is key. Support your offer with market data rather than emotion, and build rapport when possible. Stay calm and avoid emotional decisions. Have your agent handle offers and counteroffers to reduce tension. Know your limits and walk away from deals that don’t fit your goals. In buyer’s markets, be assertive; in seller’s markets, make offers strong and decisive. The fundamentals stay the same, though their intensity shifts with the season. BOTTOMLINE Seasonality creates opportunities and challenges, but personal circumstances should drive timing. Spring/early summer brings the highest prices and fastest sales. Winter offers buyers the best deals. Waiting for the “perfect” season doesn’t help if life demands action. Understanding your specific situation, timeline, and goals allows us to create a customized strategy that maximizes outcomes within your constraints. The best time to move is when it's right for you. Sources 1. National Association of REALTORS®. Navigating the Housing Market: A Seasonal Perspective. 2024. https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/navigating-the-housing-market-a-seasonal-perspective 2. Bankrate. Best Time to Sell a House. 2024 https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/best-time-to-sell-house 3. Investopedia. How Seasons Impact Real Estate More Than You Think. 2024. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/010717/seasons-impact-real-estate-more-you-think.asp 4. Zillow https://www.zillow.com/learn/best-time-to-buy-a-house/ 5. My Moving Journey https://mymovingjourney.com/blogs/moving-in-peak-season-vs-off-season