January 7, 2025

The 2025 Real Estate Report

Experts Predict Home Values to Increase 1.5% to 3.6% in 2025.


Top housing experts and economists give a glimpse of what mortgage rates, home values and the national real estate market will do in 2025. 


Key Takeaways



  • Mortgages are forecasted to remain higher for longer; but there are things you can do to lower your rate.
  • Home values are predicted to increase incrementally on a national level; and there are projects you can do to increase your home’s value.
  • The national market will slightly favor sellers in negotiations; however, real estate is driven by local dynamics and may favor either buyers or sellers.

Note: real estate is a dynamic market and forecasts made in this article will change as the year unfolds.


Mortgage Rates Will Average 6.4% in 2025


In 2023, the average 30-year mortgage peaked at 7.79% following the pandemic. Rates came down from that peak in 2024. What will mortgage rates do in the next year?


The Federal Reserve is predicted to lower the federal funds rate 6 to 8 times in 2025; but mortgage rates are not set by the Federal Reserve and may not drop significantly (National Association of REALTORS®). 


  1. Fannie Mae predicts mortgage rates to average 6.4% in 2025. Mortgage Bankers Association also predicts mortgage rates to average 6.4%, but with slightly higher rates compared to Fannie’s forecast.

Sources: Fannie Mae Housing Forecast: November 2024 and 

Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Finance Forecast: November 2024

When Will Mortgage Rates Drop Back to 3%?


Historically, rates have never been as low as the pandemic era interest rates. 30-Year mortgage rates averaged between 4% and 6% during & after the housing crisis and Great Recession. A return to a 3% range is very unlikely.

Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis

Tips to get a better mortgage rate…


While we can’t affect the average 30 year mortgage rate, you can improve your credit and get the best possible rate. Here’s an example of recent mortgage rates by credit score:

Source: myFICO.com

If you’re thinking of making a move, the earlier you talk to a mortgage finance professional, the more time you have to work on improving your credit to get a better rate. 


Need a recommendation to a trusted lender? Send me a message.


Home Values Will Increase by 1.5% to 3.6%



Since 2020, the average sales price of a home has gone up by $97,000 or 29.7% (Federal Reserve of St. Louis). Which indicates homeownership to be a great investment. But, what will home values do in the next year?


On a national level, home price growth is predicted to slow down from 2024. However, home prices are predicted to increase in 2025. Fannie Mae predicts home prices to increase on average by 3.6%. MBA is predicting an average increase of 1.5%.

Sources: Fannie Mae Housing Forecast: November 2024 and
Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Finance Forecast: November 2024

Home values are influenced by local market dynamics. If you want to understand what home values are forecasted to do locally, consider talking to a real estate professional.


Want to increase your home’s value? Consider these remodeling projects for the highest return on investment.


Will Home Values Crash in 2025?


For home values to drop significantly, a major influx of homes for sale would have to hit the market. Freddie Mac estimates the U.S. housing stock is 3.7 million units below what’s needed to meet demand. It will take time to build up inventory to meet demand. Which is why a major drop in home values and prices is unlikely.


Will 2025 Be a Home Buyers or Sellers Market?



Who will have the advantage in the 2025 housing market, buyers or sellers? One measure of the market is Months Supply and it shows who has the advantage. 


Months Supply is calculated by dividing the total number of homes for sale by the average number of homes sold each month. For example if there are 500 homes for sale in a particular area and an average of 100 homes are selling each month, the Months Supply is 5 months. 


Here’s a chart of month’s supply going back to November of 2023:

Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis

6 Months Supply is considered a balanced market. Over 6 months supply is considered a buyers’ market. Below 6 months supply is a sellers’ market. At 4 months supply on a national level, the market slightly favors sellers.

Inventory is rising nationally, however, which could shift the market to favor buyers in the next year. With that said, all real estate is local and local markets will differ in favoring buyers versus sellers.


If you want to know if your area favors buyers or sellers, send me a message.


What This Means for Homeowners


If you own a home, you will likely see a slight increase in your home's value. If you want to increase your home’s value and enjoy the upgrades, consider making some home improvements. If you want advice on which features or projects are best suited for increasing your home’s value, consult with a professional.


Tips for Potential Home Buyers


If you’re thinking of purchasing a home, the sooner you start planning the better. Knowing your price range, optimizing your credit, and working towards your down payment are steps you can take now. Even if you’re in the market to buy in the next 12 to 24 months, talking with a real estate professional early in the process will set you up for success.


Tips for Potential Home Sellers



Sellers need to prioritize their objectives. Is getting top dollar for your home the highest priority, is it moving within a specific timeframe? Do you have to sell a home prior to purchasing your next one? These objectives must be prioritized so that an effective plan and marketing strategy can be put into place. Thinking of making a move? Talk to a real estate professional!



Real Estate Forecast Outline


How’s the Market? Housing Experts Predict XX Change in 2025


Purpose / Intent Statement


Current State of Market

  • Interest Rates
  • Inflation
  • Economic Growth
  • Housing Supply & Demand


Key Factors Affecting 2025 Market

  • Discuss the specific factors that will shape the housing market in 2025.
  • Interest rates and inflation
  • Economic conditions and employment
  • Demographic shifts and migration patterns
  • Government policies and regulations
  • Technological advancements


Predictions and Trends

  • Will it be a buyer's or seller's market?
  • Which regions will see the most growth?
  • What types of properties will be in high demand?
  • Discuss emerging trends in the real estate industry.
  • Sustainable and eco-friendly housing
  • Smart home technology
  • Co-living and shared housing


Advice for Buyers and Sellers

  • Tips for getting pre-approved for a mortgage
  • Strategies for finding the right property
  • Advice on negotiating offers
  • Recommendations for staging and selling a home


Conclusion

  • Summarize the key takeaways from the article.
  • Offer a final thought or prediction about the 2025 housing market.
  • Include a call to action

Sources

Mortgage

Home Prices

February 26, 2026
At the Vickie Landis Rentsel Team of Keller Williams Realty Group, we’re always looking for small ways to say thank you to our amazing clients and community. That’s why we’re excited to host a FREE Community Shredding Event this spring! If you have old tax returns, bank statements, medical paperwork, or other sensitive documents piling up at home, this is the perfect opportunity to safely and securely dispose of them. ⸻ Why Shredding Matters Identity theft continues to be a growing concern, and one of the simplest ways to protect yourself is by properly destroying confidential documents. Items like: • Old tax documents • Credit card statements • Bank records • Medical paperwork • Pre-approved credit offers • Anything containing your Social Security number or account information Shredding these materials helps prevent personal information from falling into the wrong hands.
February 2, 2026
When most homebuyers calculate whether they can afford a new home, they focus almost exclusively on one number: the monthly mortgage payment. It's the figure lenders qualify them for, the number discussed during showings, and the benchmark used to determine budgets. The average annual cost of owning and maintaining a single-family home in the U.S., excluding the mortgage itself, is estimated at around $21,400 in 2025—roughly $1,800 per month.¹ When you factor in these national average ownership expenses, a $2,500 monthly mortgage can grow to over $4,000 in total housing costs. for a mortgage answers one question: "Can a bank trust you with this loan?" It doesn't answer the more important one: "Can you comfortably maintain this lifestyle?" In today's market, where nearly 45% of homeowners report post-purchase regrets (most commonly because maintenance and hidden costs were higher than expected), understanding the full financial picture before buying has never been more important.² The Predictable Ongoing Costs Property Taxes Property tax bills have been rising sharply nationwide, with the average reaching $4,271 in 2024 and many homeowners seeing increases of 16% or more. 3 Even where tax rates dip slightly, rising home values keep actual bills climbing—creating the irony that a home's appreciation increases annual expenses. Property taxes aren't truly fixed. Reassessments happen regularly, and as neighborhood values rise, so do tax bills—even when rates stay the same. Homeowners Insurance As of December 2025, the average premium for a new policy rose 8.5% year-over-year . 4 Climate disasters, higher rebuilding costs, and insurer risk recalibration continue driving these increases, and the trend shows no signs of reversing. A homeowner could see their monthly payment jump $200-300 in a single year without taking any action themselves—simply because their mortgage servicer adjusted the escrow to cover higher insurance premiums. HOA Dues About 40% of homes for sale have HOA fees, with median costs around $125 per month, though single-family homes typically range from $200-$300 monthly.⁵ These fees rarely decrease and often include special assessments that can add thousands in unexpected annual costs. Utilities In 2024, energy and utility costs averaged $4,494 annually, with internet and cable adding another $1,515. 1 Buyers moving from apartments to single-family homes often see these costs double due to increased square footage, outdoor irrigation, and climate control demands. Routine Maintenance Beyond emergencies, homes require ongoing care: lawn service, gutter cleaning, pest control, HVAC servicing, and seasonal tasks. These aren't luxuries for many households—they're practical solutions to time constraints and property upkeep. Collectively, these services can add $200-400 monthly to ownership costs. The Irregular—but Inevitable—Expenses Major System Replacements This is where many homeowners get caught off guard. Maintenance and repairs aren't a matter of "if" but "when"—and recent years have made "when" far more expensive. Home maintenance now averages around $8,800 annually, with first-year homeowners often facing even higher costs. 1,6 Major repairs aren't cheap: ● HVAC replacement: $5,000-$10,000 ● Roof replacement: $8,000-$15,000 ● Water heater: $1,200-$2,500 ● Foundation repairs: $4,000-$12,000 These aren't possibilities—they're certainties with varying timelines. Use the inspection as a planning tool. A 15-year-old water heater or aging roof signals $8,000-12,000 in likely expenses within the first few years. That's not a deal-breaker—it's a budget roadmap. Buyers who understand these timelines can plan strategically instead of scrambling when systems fail. Newer isn't maintenance-free. Newer builds offer a temporary reprieve, but systems still age, warranties expire, and eventually every home requires major capital improvements. Emergency repairs happen at the worst times. An HVAC failure during a heat wave, a burst pipe in winter, or storm damage to the roof—these scenarios happen when it's least convenient and most expensive. Without liquid reserves, a single emergency can derail finances entirely. Ownership Costs That Creep Up Over Time Here's what surprises many first-time buyers: the so-called "fixed costs" of homeownership aren't actually fixed. While a locked-rate mortgage provides payment stability, the escrowed components—taxes and insurance—can climb significantly year over year due to inflation, climate risk, and local policy changes. A mortgage payment that felt comfortable at closing can feel tight three years later, even without lifestyle changes. Picture this: a letter arrives saying the monthly payment is increasing $200 because insurance premiums rose and the property was reassessed at a higher value. No move, no refinance, no renovation—yet annual housing costs just jumped $2,400. The same gradual creep affects utilities, maintenance services, and every other aspect of homeownership. Budgeting for homeownership means expecting these costs to rise 3-5% annually. True stability requires planning for volatility. Planning Smarter: How Homeowners Can Stay Ahead The encouraging news: buyer's remorse is largely preventable. The issue isn't buying the wrong house—it's buying without adequate preparation. Create a Dedicated House Repair Fund Separate from emergency savings, this fund exists solely for home maintenance and repairs. Treat it like a non-negotiable monthly bill—set up automatic transfers so it happens without thinking about it. The old rule of saving 1% of your home's value annually? It's outdated. Plan for more—closer to 2-3% of your home's value annually, or whatever amount lets you sleep at night knowing the HVAC won't derail your budget. Don't Drain Your Savings at Closing Cash reserves protect against surprises and prevent forced debt when repairs arise. If possible, keep several thousand dollars liquid after closing rather than putting every available dollar into the down payment or upgrades. That breathing room matters more than most buyers realize. Invest in Preventative Maintenance Annual HVAC servicing, gutter cleaning, and seasonal inspections catch small problems before they become expensive emergencies. A modest service call that prevents a major system failure is always worthwhile. Create a seasonal maintenance calendar: HVAC checkups in spring and fall, gutter cleaning before winter, roof inspections after major storms. Consistency prevents costly surprises. Know Your Home's Systems and Timelines Understanding when major systems were last replaced helps predict future expenses. A 12-year-old water heater isn't an emergency today, but it signals a likely expense within 2-3 years. Planning beats scrambling. When Homeownership Still Make Sense Despite the expenses, homeownership remains one of the most powerful wealth-building tools available to American families—when approached correctly! Long-Term Equity Building Mortgage payments build equity with every payment. Unlike rent, ownership creates a forced savings mechanism that compounds over decades. In most markets, homes appreciate over time, multiplying the wealth-building effect. Stability and Control Homeowners control their living environment. Want to renovate the kitchen, paint the walls, landscape the yard, or install solar panels? Ownership provides autonomy that renting never will. That control has both lifestyle and financial value. Predictability vs. Rent Volatility While ownership costs rise gradually over time, rent increases can be sudden and dramatic—with national rents climbing 31% over the past five year. 7 A fixed-rate mortgage provides payment predictability that renting cannot match. Yes, taxes and insurance increase, but the principal and interest portion—typically 60-70% of the total payment—remains locked. Renters face volatility on 100% of their housing costs. Lifestyle Benefits Beyond finances, homeownership offers intangible benefits: deeper community roots, stability for families, space for hobbies, and the pride of building something that's truly yours. These benefits have real value, even if they don't appear on a balance sheet. The key is ensuring the financial foundation supports the lifestyle, not undermines it. A Better Way to Think About Affordability The true measure of affordability isn't what a lender will approve—it's what allows sleeping well at night when the water heater fails or the insurance premium spikes. The smartest buyers calculate affordability as "mortgage plus carrying costs" from the start, which might narrow the price range slightly but creates breathing room and peace of mind. Homeownership remains one of the most powerful wealth-building tools available, but only when approached with financial realism rather than maximum leverage. Having an honest conversation about what affordability truly looks like isn't about limiting dreams—it's about making sure those dreams don't become financial nightmares. Sources: 1. Bankrate: https://www.bankrate.com/home-equity/hidden-costs-of-homeownership-study/ 2. Bankrate: https://www.bankrate.com/f/102997/x/c84a6b9359/homeowner-regrets-survey-press-release.pdf 3. Matic: https://matic.com/blog/2026-home-insurance-predictions/ 4. NAHB: https://www.nahb.org/blog/2025/12/property-taxes-2024-residential/ 5. Realtor.com: https://www.realtor.com/research/homeowners-associations-2024/ 6. Inman: https://www.inman.com/2026/01/12/as-home-maintenance-costs-rise-agents-turn-to-tools-that-reduce-buyer-risk/ 7. Rentec Direct: https://www.rentecdirect.com/blog/new-data-shows-the-state-of-rent-in-2025-from-rentec-direct/ 
January 5, 2026
Will 2026 be the year buyers stop waiting? Forecasters are split, predicting anywhere from 1.7% 1 to 14% 2 growth in home sales. That 12-point gap reveals the central question facing the housing market: how much will slightly lower mortgage rates and slowly eroding lock-in effects actually unlock pent-up demand? Nearly every major forecaster agrees the market will be more active than 2025. But beyond that consensus, predictions diverge sharply on pace and scale. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects robust 14% sales growth. Realtor.com sees a modest 1.7% bump. Both could be right for different markets and price points. For anyone planning to buy, sell, or simply understand their home equity position in 2026, these diverging forecasts matter less than the underlying fundamentals. Mortgage rates should settle slightly lower. Inventory will improve modestly. Prices will continue rising, though more slowly than recent years. The market is thawing. More importantly, the housing market appears to be returning to the pace and rhythm of more normal conditions after the artificial volatility of the pandemic era. The 2025 Context: Why the Market Stayed Frozen The 2025 housing market disappointed. Mortgage rates remained stubbornly above 6.5%, suppressing demand and keeping transaction volumes near historic lows. 8 As of mid-2025, more than 80% of U.S. homeowners hold mortgage rates below 6%, reinforcing the lock-in effect that has kept many would-be sellers on the sidelines.³ Affordability challenges reached acute levels. The typical first-time buyer aged to 40 years old 4 , reflecting simple math that monthly payments at elevated rates and prices pushed homeownership out of reach for younger buyers. The market did not crash but did not heal either, with overall transaction volume remaining constrained. 2026 Predictions: Where Forecasters Agree and Disagree Mortgage Rates: Consensus on Modest Improvement Forecasters agree broadly on mortgage rate trajectories. Expectations cluster tightly in the 6.0% to 6.4% range, representing modest but meaningful improvement from 2025 levels.  2026 Mortgage Rate Forecasts