January 4, 2023

2023 Real Estate Market Outlook (And What It Means for You)

Last year, one factor drove the real estate market more than any other: rising mortgage rates.

 

In March 2022, the Federal Reserve began a series of interest rate hikes in an effort to pump the brakes on inflation.1 And while some market sectors have been slow to respond, the housing market has reacted accordingly.

 

Both demand and price appreciation have tapered, as the primary challenge for homebuyers has shifted from availability to affordability. And although this higher-mortgage rate environment has been a painful adjustment for many buyers and sellers, it should ultimately lead to a more stable and balanced real estate market.

 

So what can we expect in 2023? Will mortgage rates continue to climb? Could home prices come crashing down? While this is one of the more challenging real estate periods to forecast, here’s what several industry experts predict will happen to the U.S. housing market in the coming year.

 

 

MORTGAGE RATES WILL FLUCTUATE LESS

 

In 2022, 30-year fixed mortgage rates surged from roughly 3% in January to around 7%. According to Rick Sharga of real estate data company ATTOM, “We’ve never seen rates double in so short a period.”2

 

This year, economists forecast a less dramatic shift.

 

In an interview with Bankrate, Nadia Evangelou, senior economist for the National Association of Realtors, shares her vision of three possible mortgage rate scenarios:3

 

  1. Inflation continues to surge, forcing the Fed to repeatedly raise interest rates. In that scenario, she predicts that rates could reach as high as 8.5%.
  2. Inflation decelerates and mortgage rates follow suit, averaging 7 to 7.5% for the year.
  3. Rising interest rates trigger a recession, which could ultimately lead mortgage rates to drop closer to 5% by the end of the year.

 

Realtor.com forecasts something similar to scenario #2 above: “Mortgage rates will average 7.4% in 2023, trickling down to 7.1% by year’s end.”4 The Mortgage Bankers Association, however, projects something closer to Evangelou’s scenario #3, with the 30-year fixed rate declining steadily throughout the year, averaging 6.2% in Q1 and 5.2% by Q4.5

 

Economists at Fannie Mae fall somewhere in the middle. In a recent press release, they predicted that the U.S. economy will experience a “modest recession” this year.6 But in their December Housing Forecast, they project that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will only fall by half a point from an average of 6.5% in Q1 to 6.0% in Q4.7

 

“From our perspective, the good news is that demographics remain favorable for housing, so the sector appears well-positioned to help lead the economy out of what we expect will be a brief recession,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan.6

 

What does it mean for you?  Even the experts can’t say for certain where mortgage rates are headed. Instead of trying to ”time the market,” focus instead on buying or selling a home when the time is right for you. There are a variety of mortgage options available that can make a home purchase more affordable, including adjustable rates, points, and buydowns—and keep in mind you can always refinance down the road. We’d be happy to refer you to a trusted mortgage professional who can outline your best options.

 

 

SALES VOLUME WILL FALL AND INVENTORY WILL RISE

 

It looks like the home-buying frenzy we experienced in recent years is behind us. While the desire to own a home remains strong, higher mortgage rates have made it unaffordable for a large segment of would-be buyers.

 

Many economists expect the number of home sales to continue to decline this year, leading to an increase in listing inventory and days-on-market, or the time it takes to sell a home. But, there is a wide range when it comes to specifics.

 

Economists at Fannie Mae forecast that total home sales will fall by around 20% this year before rising again by nearly 15% in 2024.7 National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun projects a less extreme dip of 7% in 2023 with a rebound of 10% next year.8

 

Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale foresees something in between. “The deceleration in home sales is likely to continue as high home prices and mortgage rates limit the pool of eligible home buyers. We anticipate that existing home sales will decline another 14.1% in 2023.” She expects this drop in sales to lead to a nearly 23% increase in inventory levels this year, offering more choices for buyers who have struggled to find a home in the past.9

 

However, given the severe lack of housing supply, even with a double-digit increase, the market is expected to remain relatively tight and below pre-pandemic levels. Hale points out: “It’s important to keep historical context in mind. The level of inventory in 2023 is expected to fall roughly 15% short of the 2019 average.”9

 

What does it mean for you?  If you’ve been frustrated by a lack of inventory in the past, 2023 may bring new opportunities for you to find the perfect home. And today’s buyers have more negotiating power than they’ve had in years. Contact us to find out about current and future listings that meet your criteria.

 

If you’re hoping to sell, you may want to act fast; rising inventory levels will mean increased competition. We can help you chart the best course to maximize your profits, starting with a professional assessment of your home’s current market value. Reach out to schedule a free consultation.

 

 

HOME PRICES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE

 

While some economists expect home prices to fall this year, many expect them to remain fairly stable. “For most parts of the country, home prices are holding steady since available inventory is extremely low,” said Yun at a November conference.8

 

Nationally, Yun expects the average median home price to tick up by 1% in 2023, with some markets experiencing greater appreciation and others experiencing declines.8 Economists at Fannie Mae offer a similar projection, forecasting a slight decrease in their Home Price Index of about 1.5%, year-over-year.7

 

Other experts foresee a larger fluctuation. Hale expects U.S. home prices to rise by 5.4% this year, while Morgan Stanley is forecasting a 7% drop from the peak in June 2022.9,10

 

Still, many economists agree that a housing market crash like the one we experienced in 2008 is highly unlikely. The factors that caused home prices to plunge during the Great Recession—specifically lax lending standards and a surplus of inventory—aren’t prevalent in our current market.10 Therefore, home values are expected to remain comparatively stable.

 

What does it mean for you? It can feel scary to buy a home when there’s uncertainty in the market. However, real estate is a long-term investment that has been shown to appreciate over time. And keep in mind that the best bargains are often found in a slower market, like the one we’re experiencing right now. Contact us to discuss your goals and budget. We can help you make an informed decision about the right time to buy.

 

And if you’re planning to sell this year, you’ll want to chart your path carefully to maximize your profits. Contact us for recommendations and to find out what your home could sell for in today’s market.

 

 

RENT PRICES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB

 

Affordability challenges for would-be buyers, inflationary pressures, and an overall lack of housing could continue to drive “above-average” rent price increases in much of the country.11 The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas expects year-over-year rental price growth to tick up to 8.4% in May before moderating later in the year.12

 

According to Hale, “U.S. renters will continue to face challenges from limited supply and excess demand in the coming year that will keep upward pressure on rent growth. At a national level, we forecast rent growth of 6.3% in the next 12 months, somewhat ahead of home price growth and historical rent trends.”9

 

However, there are signs that the surge in rent prices could be tapering. According to Jay Parsons, head of economics for rental housing software company RealPage, there’s some evidence of a slowdown in demand. He predicts that market-rate rents will rise just 3.3% this year. Still, analysts agree that a return to lower pre-pandemic rental prices is unlikely.10

 

What does it mean for you?  Rent prices are expected to keep climbing. But you can lock in a set mortgage payment and build long-term wealth by putting that money toward a home purchase instead. Reach out for a free consultation to discuss your options.

 

And if you’ve ever thought about purchasing a rental property, now may be a perfect time. Call today to get your investment property search started.

 

 

WE’RE HERE TO GUIDE YOU

 

While national real estate forecasts can provide a “big picture” outlook, real estate is local. And as local market experts, we can guide you through the ins and outs of our market and the issues most likely to impact sales and drive home values in your particular neighborhood.

 

If you’re considering buying or selling a home in 2023, contact us now to schedule a free consultation. We’ll work with you to develop an action plan to meet your real estate goals this year.

 

 

The above references an opinion and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult the appropriate professionals for advice regarding your individual needs.

 

 

Sources:

  1. Forbes -
    https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/
  2. Bankrate -
    https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/will-mortgage-rates-go-up-in-december-2022/
  3. Bankrate -
    https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/housing-market-predictions-2023/
  4. Realtor.com -
    https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/2023-the-year-of-the-homebuyer-our-bold-predictions-on-home-prices-mortgage-rates-and-more/
  5. Mortgage Bankers Association -
    https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-and-forecasts/forecasts/mortgage-finance-forecast-dec-2022.pdf?sfvrsn=b584bf7_1
  6. Fannie Mae -
    https://www.fanniemae.com/newsroom/fannie-mae-news/economy-still-expected-enter-and-exit-modest-recession-2023
  7. Fannie Mae -
    https://www.fanniemae.com/media/45801/display
  8. National Association of Realtors -
    https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nars-lawrence-yun-predicts-us-home-prices-wont-experience-major-decline-could-possibly-rise-slightly
  9. Realtor.com -
    https://www.realtor.com/research/2023-national-housing-forecast/
  10. The New York Times -
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/04/realestate/housing-market-interest-rates.html
  11. CNBC -
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/how-much-higher-rent-will-go-in-2023-according-to-experts.html
  12. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas -
    https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0816

 

September 4, 2025
Real estate continues to dominate as America's favorite long-term investment strategy. For the 12th consecutive year, 37% of Americans consider real estate the top investment choice—nearly doubling stocks at just 16%. 1 This isn't just sentiment; investors are putting their money where their beliefs are, purchasing 13% of all homes sold in 2024. 2 The truth is, real estate offers unique advantages that traditional investments can't match. A rental property provides multiple income streams, delivering monthly rent payments while simultaneously building equity and appreciating in value. Plus, leverage amplifies returns: Even if you put down 20%, you’ll benefit from 100% of the property's appreciation gains. Tax advantages, such as depreciation and deductible expenses, can further boost profitability. 3 When executed wisely, rental properties can deliver steady cash flow today and significant wealth tomorrow. But success starts with preparation—knowing how rentals make money, who is best suited to invest, what to look for, and where to start. How Rental Properties Build Wealth Great rental properties create wealth through three primary channels that work together to compound returns over time: Cash Flow represents net monthly income after expenses. The formula: Total rent minus all expenses (mortgage, taxes, insurance, maintenance, management fees, etc.). A duplex renting for $3,300 monthly with $2,700 in expenses generates $600 monthly positive cash flow—money for profit or reinvestment. Appreciation refers to property value increases over time. Historically, U.S. home prices have risen approximately 3-5% annually. 4 A 5% annual appreciation on a $300,000 house adds $15,000+ to your equity annually from market gains alone. Equity growth also occurs as mortgage payments reduce loan principal. Ideally, tenant rent effectively covers these payments, so tenants are purchasing the property for you incrementally. If $500 monthly goes toward principal, you gain $6,000 in equity annually. The total return combines all three elements. While individual components might not create overnight wealth, together they compound impressively for patient investors. Who Should Invest in Rentals? Rental property investing isn’t for everyone. The most successful investors tend to share a few traits: Long-term wealth builders with financial stability and risk tolerance typically succeed. Investment properties require substantial down payments (typically 20-30%) plus cash reserves for maintenance and vacancies. You need stable finances with emergency funds before investing, as real estate is illiquid. 5 Detail-oriented, patient investors often find the greatest success. Nearly 90% of real estate investors encounter challenges—bad tenants, unexpected repairs, or incorrect pricing. 6 Smart investors educate themselves and analyze numbers carefully before buying. Hands-on, resourceful owners who can handle basic maintenance, repairs, and tenant management themselves also have an advantage. These investors can save thousands each year on property management and service fees, boosting overall returns. If you align with these traits, rental property investing can be a powerful tool for building lasting wealth. Where to Begin Your Investment Journey The first step is to contact an investment-savvy real estate agent. We can be an invaluable partner in finding and securing great properties by offering: Access to off-market deals that you can’t find on your own. We have extensive networks and can sometimes help you uncover properties before they are publicly listed. Expert market knowledge to help you choose the right property. We know which neighborhoods, property types, and home features are the most desirable to renters in our area. Deal analysis assistance to maximize your returns. We can help you estimate cash flow, cap rates, and return on investment. Ongoing network support that extends beyond closing. We maintain networks of reliable contractors, property managers, investor-friendly lenders, and insurance brokers. With the right guidance from day one, you can move forward with confidence and start building a portfolio that works for you. Your Rental Property Evaluation Checklist Not all rental properties offer equal investment potential. Smart investors use systematic criteria to identify truly great opportunities: Location & Market Analysis Location determines everything—tenant quality, rental demand, and appreciation potential. Focus on areas with strong rental demand near employment centers, universities, or transit systems ensuring steady tenant pools. Research local vacancy rates carefully. High neighborhood vacancy signals low demand, while low vacancy allows rent increases. Investigate safety and school quality—properties in low-crime areas with good schools attract stable, long-term tenants. 5 Evaluate regional economic trends beyond immediate neighborhoods. Growing employment opportunities drive housing demand. Research major employers that are expanding but avoid areas dependent on single industries. Check government infrastructure plans—new transit or development projects can boost values, but excessive new development might increase competition. 5 Financial Analysis Perform detailed cash flow analysis for every potential property. Calculate expected rent and subtract all expenses: mortgage payments, property taxes, insurance, HOA fees, management costs, maintenance reserves (budget 10% of rent), and vacancy allowances. The “1% rule” provides a quick assessment—monthly rent should equal at least 1% of purchase price plus any necessary repairs. Therefore, a $200,000 home should rent for at least $2,000 monthly. 5 Run sensitivity analysis: What happens if rents drop 5% or expenses increase 10%? Great properties remain profitable under various conditions. Property Condition & Carrying Costs Physical condition directly impacts returns. Older homes with outdated systems may require frequent, costly repairs. 7 Schedule professional inspections focusing on major components: roof, foundation, electrical, plumbing, and HVAC systems. Consider property layout—standard configurations like 3-bedroom/2-bathroom homes appeal to broader tenant bases than unusual layouts. Factor in capital expenditure timelines for major items needing replacement every 15-30 years. Research property tax rates and insurance costs carefully. Some areas have taxes so high that even nice properties won't generate profit. Get insurance quotes before purchasing, especially for properties in flood zones or disaster-prone areas requiring expensive additional coverage. Property Type Selection For most investors, single-family homes, condominiums, or townhomes offer the best starting point. Single-family homes typically attract longer-term tenants who treat the property as their home, resulting in steadier income. 5 Unless you’re planning to use your property as a short-term or vacation rental, avoid highly specialized properties like luxury mansions or tiny studios targeting niche markets with higher vacancy risks. “Bread and butter” 2-4 bedroom homes in middle-class neighborhoods form successful long-term rental portfolio foundations. 5 Due Diligence Requirements Verify all numbers independently. Research comparable rents for similar nearby properties ensuring realistic projections. 7 Check sales comparables to avoid overpaying. Schedule professional inspections and read reports thoroughly—unexpected problems can transform great deals into money pits. Understand local landlord-tenant laws covering eviction processes and deposit rules. Consult professionals, as needed, for valuable guidance. If this checklist seems overwhelming, don’t worry! We can help with each of these items. By following this checklist, we’ll separate high-performing rental opportunities from costly mistakes and position you for long-term success. BOTTOM LINE Great rental properties aren't found by chance—they're identified through systematic evaluation. Properties that build lasting wealth combine healthy cash flow, solid locations, sound physical condition, and strong growth potential. Success requires patience, proper analysis, and the right team. While markets fluctuate, well-chosen properties consistently reward investors through income, appreciation, and equity growth creating real wealth over time. Ready to start building wealth through rental property investment? The fundamentals we’ve outlined provide your foundation, but local market expertise and deal analysis make the difference between mediocre and exceptional investments. Let's discuss how these principles apply to current opportunities in your target market. Sources 1. Gallup - "Real Estate Still Best Investment" - https://news.gallup.com/poll/660161/stocks-fall-gold-rises-real-estate-best-investment.aspx 2. Realtor.com Research - "Investor Report June 2025" - https://www.realtor.com/research/investor-report-june-2025/ 3. Investopedia - "Real Estate vs. Stocks" - https://www.investopedia.com/investing/reasons-invest-real-estate-vs-stock-market/ 4. Redfin Blog - "Average home appreciation per year" - https://www.redfin.com/blog/average-home-appreciation-per-year/ 5. Investopedia - "10 Factors to Consider When Buying an Income Property" - https://www.investopedia.com/articles/mortgages-real-estate/08/buy-rental-property.asp 6. Clever Real Estate Survey - "Residential Real Estate Investing in 2024" - https://listwithclever.com/research/residential-real-estate-investing-2024/ 7. Investopedia - "5 Ways to Value a Real Estate Rental Property" - https://www.investopedia.com/articles/mortgages-real-estate/11/how-to-value-real-estate-rental.asp
August 6, 2025
As a homeowner, you’re likely diligent about the basics—mowing the lawn, touching up paint, and cleaning regularly. But what about the critical home maintenance tasks you don’t see every day? Research shows that home maintenance frequently takes a backseat, even with the best intentions. In fact, a recent survey found that 60% of homeowners have postponed necessary maintenance or repairs, while 40% admit to paying for a major home repair that could have been avoided with better upkeep. 1 Still, it’s not just about avoiding costly emergencies—it’s also about maximizing the return on your biggest investment. According to research by Thumbtack, homeowners who do put in the extra care are rewarded: Well-maintained homes sell for an average of 10% more. 2 Let’s explore 10 often overlooked home maintenance tasks and how they can save you thousands in long-term costs. 1. Gutter Cleaning: Your First Line of Protection Clogged gutters can cause water to overflow and seep into your home’s foundation, attic, or siding. Left unchecked, this can lead to foundation damage, rot, and even flooding. The real cost of neglect: While professional gutter cleaning averages $162 nationally (up to $390 for multi-story homes), water damage repair costs can add up—averaging $5,100 for foundation damage and $4,300 for a flooded basement. 3,4,5 Your action plan: Clean gutters at least twice annually—in spring and fall. Use a gutter scoop or hose to remove debris. Consider investing in gutter guards to reduce future clogs. This small task prevents major structural damage and prolongs the life of your home’s exterior. 2. HVAC Filter Replacement: Small Task, Major Impact A dirty HVAC filter reduces airflow, causes your system to work harder, and increases energy use. It can also lead to health concerns from trapped contaminants circulating in your home’s air. 6 The hidden costs: A neglected filter can lead to clamped-up coils, furnace failures, and sometimes a complete system replacement costing $4,000-$12,000. 6 Your maintenance routine: Replace filters every 1–3 months, depending on filter type, usage, and the number of pets in your home. Opt for MERV 8–13 filters for efficiency and air quality balance. 7 Schedule full-system annual servicing ($175–$550) to catch hidden issues early. 8 This simple task saves on energy bills (15-20% according to the Department of Energy) and extends your HVAC system’s lifespan. 8 3. Water Heater Flushing: Preventing Sediment Buildup Over time, sediment accumulates in your water heater tank, reducing efficiency and shortening the unit's lifespan. Left unchecked, this buildup can cause leaks or complete tank failure. The financial reality: Regular flushing prevents early replacement and may be required to maintain your water heater’s warranty. 9 You can do it yourself or hire a professional for around $160. 10 Your annual process: Turn off power and water supply to the unit Attach a hose to the drain valve and empty the tank completely Check your anode rod; it may need to be replaced every 3–5 years. This simple routine extends your water heater’s life and preserves energy efficiency. 4. Dryer Vent Cleaning: A Critical Safety Task Lint buildup in dryer vents doesn’t just reduce drying efficiency—it’s one of the leading causes of house fires in the U.S. 11 They also force your dryer to work harder and longer for each load. The cost factor: Professional dryer vent cleaning costs about $144 nationwide, while fire-related damage can run into the tens of thousands. 12 Your safety protocol: Clean dryer vents every six months using a brush kit, or call in a professional. Replace plastic ducts with rigid metal ones, which resist lint clogs. Monitor drying times—longer than usual may signal a blockage. This potentially life-saving task improves both safety and appliance efficiency. 5. Refrigerator Coil Cleaning: The 35% Energy Drain Your refrigerator’s coils help expel heat. When coated in dust, they force the compressor to work harder, increasing energy bills and shortening appliance lifespan. The efficiency impact: Dirty coils can increase energy use by up to 35% and, over time, can lead to costly repairs or replacement. 13 Your simple solution: Check your manufacturer’s guidelines; many recommend cleaning every six months. Locate coils behind or at the bottom of the unit and use a vacuum or coil brush to remove dust and debris. Keep condenser fan areas unobstructed. This $0 DIY task can trim your electricity bill—and prevent early breakdown. 6. Garage Door Lubrication: Prevents Costly Repairs A squeaky garage door means friction—and friction leads to wear on moving parts, costly spring damage, and failed openers. The mechanical reality: A new garage door opener can cost between $350-$1000 installed, but a can of lubricant only costs about $10. 14 Your annual routine: Check the manufacturer’s guidelines to choose the right lubricant for your garage door. Prioritize safety: Ensure the door is fully closed and cut the electricity. Check for any signs of damage before proceeding, and call in a pro if needed. 15 This simple task eliminates squeaks and avoids expensive mechanical repairs. 7. Sump Pump Testing: Your Basement's Guardian Your sump pump quietly protects your basement from water damage—but it needs testing to ensure it works when you need it most. The flood prevention factor: Sump pump failure during a storm can result in thousands of dollars in cleanup costs. 5 Your quarterly test: Pour water into the pit to ensure the float triggers the pump. Confirm pump and drainage are working correctly. Clean the inlet screen once per year to avoid clogs. This 10-minute check gives peace of mind and avoids major flood damage. 8. Chimney Cleaning: Preventing House Fires According to the National Fire Protection Association, the leading cause of home heating fires (30%) is a dirty chimney. 16 The fire prevention imperative: Professional cleaning costs between $100-$350 and is crucial for anyone burning wood. 17 The cost of ignoring this task includes chimney repairs and fire damage that can devastate homes. Your annual safety check: Hire a certified chimney sweep for inspection and cleaning, if needed. Use only seasoned wood to reduce creosote buildup. Install a chimney cap to block debris and critters. Professional chimney maintenance is a non-negotiable safety investment. 9. Roof Inspection: Protecting Your Shelter Your roof endures a lot—storms, sun, pests—and while damage may start small, it can become unbelievably costly if ignored. The structural stakes: A professional inspection averages $239, but some roofers will offer one for free. 18 Roof repair costs have surged 28.47% year-over-year. 19 A new roof now costs $9,500 on average. 20 Your inspection process: Twice per year, perform a DIY inspection for missing shingles, cracked flashing, and sagging areas. Check your attic for stains or leaks after rainfall. Consider a professional inspection every 1-2 years, depending on your risk factors. 18 Early intervention prevents thousands in repairs and helps retain resale value. 10. Water Pressure Monitoring: Protecting Your Plumbing Many homeowners never check their home’s water pressure, but levels above 80 psi can damage pipes, appliances, and fixtures throughout your home, leading to premature failures and leaks. The pressure problem: Water pressure that’s too high can damage your pipes and lead to expensive repairs or flooding. Pressure that’s too low can impact the performance of your faucets and appliances. 21 Your annual check: Use a water pressure gauge connected to an outdoor faucet. Ideal pressure: 40-60 psi. Install a regulator if it runs high. Monitor for sudden changes that could signal a plumbing issue. 21 This small check helps you avoid hidden damage to your entire plumbing system. Creating Your Home Maintenance Schedule Rather than reacting to emergencies, create a proactive plan. Here's a maintenance chart that puts it all in one place:
July 1, 2025
As we reach the midpoint of 2025, the U.S. housing market stands at a critical juncture. The frenzy of the pandemic-era real estate boom has long since cooled, but in its place we’re seeing a market searching for balance. Higher mortgage rates, cautious buyers, and rising home inventory are combining to reshape what it means to buy or sell a home in today’s climate. “The housing market is at a turning point,” says Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of real estate research at the National Association of Realtors. 1 This turning point brings both challenges and opportunities. Whether you’re buying, selling, or just keeping a close eye on the market, understanding these evolving trends is essential. In this comprehensive market update, we examine four key factors influencing today's housing market and provide actionable strategies for navigating these evolving conditions.