June 1, 2023

National Real Estate Market Update

National Real Estate Market Update for 2023


There’s an old adage in real estate: location, location, location. But ever since the Federal Reserve began its series of inflation-fighting interest rate hikes last year, a new mantra has emerged: mortgage rates, mortgage rates, mortgage rates.


Higher rates had the immediate impact of dampening homebuyer affordability and demand. But this year, we’re seeing further repercussions. While analysts expected listing inventory to swell as sales declined, instead, homeowners have been pushing off plans to sell because they feel beholden to their existing, lower mortgage rates.


So what impact is this reduced demand and low supply environment having on home values? And what can we expect from the real estate market in the coming months and years? Here are several key indicators that help to paint a picture of the current market and where it’s likely headed.



HOME SALES ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BY EARLY NEXT YEAR


The weather isn’t the only thing that heats up in the spring and summer. Nationally, it tends to be the busiest time in real estate. But this year, the peak season got off to a slow start, with sales declines in both March and April.1,2 Existing home sales in April were down 3.4% from the previous month—and 23.2% from a year earlier.2


What’s causing this market slowdown? Industry experts attribute it to several factors, including near-record home prices, high mortgage rates, and low inventory.


According to National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “Home sales are trying to recover and are highly sensitive to changes in mortgage rates. Yet, at the same time, multiple offers on starter homes are quite common, implying more supply is needed to fully satisfy demand. It's a unique housing market.”1


However, some industry experts believe the market is poised for a comeback. Forecasters at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) predict that home sales will continue to fall through Q3 before rising in Q4 and throughout next year.3 Analysts at Fannie Mae expect the recovery to take a bit longer, picking up in early 2024.


Meanwhile, home builder confidence is already up, as purchases of new single-family homes surged in March and April to a 13-month high.5 Builder incentives are helping to boost sales: According to the National Association of Home Builders, in May, 54% reported using them to win over budget-conscious buyers.6


What does it mean for you? A slower pace of sales has given buyers some breathing room. If you hated the frenzy of the pandemic-era real estate market, now might be a better time for you to shop for a home. We can help you evaluate your options and make an informed purchase.


If you plan to sell your home, prepare yourself for less foot traffic and a longer sales timeline than you may have found a year ago. It will also be crucial to enlist the help of a skilled agent who knows how to draw in buyers. Reach out for a copy of our multi-step Property Marketing Plan.

 


PROPERTY VALUES REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE


Some good news for buyers: While home builder sales climbed in April, the median new-house price fell to $420,800, an 8.2% decrease from a year ago.5 Meanwhile, the median existing-home price dropped to $388,800, down 1.7% year-over-year. Notably, existing-home prices rose in parts of the country but fell in the South and West.2 


“Roughly half of the country is experiencing price gains,” explains Yun. “Multiple-offer situations have returned in the spring buying season following the calmer winter market. Distressed and forced property sales are virtually nonexistent.”2


The average national home price remains about 40% higher than it was in early 2020, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index.7 A tight housing supply has helped to buoy prices amidst a slowdown in sales.


“While it varies from region to region, home prices at the national level may fall 1% or 1.5% by the end of the year, so not much,” Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, told Yahoo Finance in April.8


Record levels of home equity will help to stabilize the sector and prevent a wave of foreclosures, even as prices moderate, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.9


“But for those who have owned a home for more than a year or two, their home will remain a rock-solid investment. And once affordability is restored, the next generation of households can become homeowners. Getting there is critical to the financial well-being of those households, their communities, and the broader economy,” writes Zandi in The Washington Post.9


What does it mean for you? Prices have softened in certain market segments—and motivated sellers are out there and willing to make deals. We can help you find your next home and negotiate a great price.


If you’re a homeowner, the surge in home values has slowed, but you’re likely still sitting on a nice pile of equity. Reach out for a free assessment to find out how much your home is currently worth.



LISTING INVENTORY IS LOW, BUT NEW CONSTRUCTION IS ON THE RISE


Unsold existing home inventory rose 7.2% from March to April, according to NAR. At the current level of demand, this equates to 2.9 months of supply, which is still well below the 5 to 6 months of inventory required for a “balanced” market.2


Inventory remains tight despite the market slowdown because many would-be sellers are reluctant to give up their lower mortgage rates. “Affordability is not only an issue for first-time homebuyers, but also for many repeat buyers who still need to take on a mortgage,” explains Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com.10


In a recent survey by the home listing site, 82% of respondents who are planning to both buy and sell a home said they feel “locked in” by their low rate.11


In some areas, new home construction is helping to fill the supply gap. “Currently, one-third of housing inventory is new construction, compared to historical norms of a little more than 10%,” according to National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist Robert Dietz.12


And more new homes are in the pipeline, after a builder slowdown last year. Single-family housing starts rose 1.6% from March to April (seasonally adjusted) and new construction permits hit a seven-month high.13


What does it mean for you? Inventory remains tight, but less competition means more choice and negotiating power for buyers. If you’ve had trouble finding a home in the past, it may be time to take another look. We can help you explore both new and existing homes in our area.


Sellers are enjoying reduced competition right now, as well. However, the longer you wait to list, the more competition you’re likely to face. And if you feel locked in by your current, lower mortgage rate, consider this: If you roll your equity gains into a down payment on your next home, you could possibly lower your monthly payment. Reach out to discuss your options.



MORTGAGE RATES MAY FINALLY COME DOWN


According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a peak of 7.08% in the fourth quarter of 2022, and since then it’s primarily floated between 6 and 7%.14 However, there are signs that rates could trend lower later this year.


“Calmer inflation means lower mortgage rates, eventually,” Yun predicted in a recent statement. “Mortgage rates slipping down to under 6% looks very likely toward the year’s end.”15


Other leading economists agree. In its May forecast, Fannie Mae speculates that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will continue to decline, averaging 6.0% in Q4 2023 and 5.4% by Q4 2024.4 Meanwhile, the MBA predicts rates will fall even faster, averaging 5.6% by Q4 2023 and 4.8% by Q4 2024.3


On May 3, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark borrowing rate by another quarter point—its 10th consecutive increase since March 2022. However, in its corresponding statement, the Fed omitted language from its previous release about “additional policy firming,” leaving some analysts to speculate that the rate hikes may be over.16 


Although mortgage rates aren’t directly tied to the federal funds rate, a decision by the Fed to pause rate increases could have a positive effect. In the meantime, buyers should shop around multiple lenders to find the best rate—and buckle up for what could be an exciting ride.


What does it mean for you? Mortgage rates may finally trend down, which would be great news for buyers. But, a decrease in rates could correspond with an increase in competition and prices. If you start searching now, you’ll be prepared to make an offer when the time is right. We can help you negotiate a great deal and potential seller incentives.


If you’re planning to sell, this is good news for you, too. But, there are several factors to consider when determining the right time to list your home. Reach out for a consultation so we can help you chart the best course.



WE’RE HERE TO GUIDE YOU


While national real estate forecasts can provide a “big picture” outlook, real estate is local. And as local market experts, we can guide you through the ins and outs of our market and the issues most likely to impact sales and drive home values in your particular neighborhood. 


If you’re considering buying or selling a home, contact us now to schedule a free consultation. We’ll work with you to develop an action plan to meet your real estate goals.



The above references an opinion and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult the appropriate professionals for advice regarding your individual needs.


Sources:

National Association of Realtors -

https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-slid-2-4-in-march

National Association of Realtors -

https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-faded-3-4-in-april

Mortgage Bankers Association -

https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-and-forecasts/forecasts/2023/mortgage-finance-forecast-may-2023.pdf?sfvrsn=4bf1d1a7_1

Fannie Mae -

https://www.fanniemae.com/media/47006/display

U.S. Census Bureau - 

https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.html

National Association of Home Builders -

https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2023/05/lack-of-existing-inventory--boosts-builder-confidence-to-key-marker

New York Times -

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/29/business/spring-housing-market.html?

Yahoo Finance -

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-increase-after-weeks-of-declines-160015631.html

The Washington Post -

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/22/housing-prices-put-some-out-of-the-market/

CNBC -

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/20/home-sales-fell-in-march-amid-volatility-in-mortgage-rates.html

Realtor.com -

https://www.realtor.com/research/2023-q1-sellers-survey-btts/

National Association of Home Builders - 

https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2023/04/lack-of-existing-inventory-continues-to-support-builder-sentiment

United State Census Bureau -

https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

Freddie Mac -

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

National Association of Realtors - 

https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/instant-reaction-inflation-april-12-2023

CNBC - 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/03/fed-rate-decision-may-2023-.html

September 4, 2025
Real estate continues to dominate as America's favorite long-term investment strategy. For the 12th consecutive year, 37% of Americans consider real estate the top investment choice—nearly doubling stocks at just 16%. 1 This isn't just sentiment; investors are putting their money where their beliefs are, purchasing 13% of all homes sold in 2024. 2 The truth is, real estate offers unique advantages that traditional investments can't match. A rental property provides multiple income streams, delivering monthly rent payments while simultaneously building equity and appreciating in value. Plus, leverage amplifies returns: Even if you put down 20%, you’ll benefit from 100% of the property's appreciation gains. Tax advantages, such as depreciation and deductible expenses, can further boost profitability. 3 When executed wisely, rental properties can deliver steady cash flow today and significant wealth tomorrow. But success starts with preparation—knowing how rentals make money, who is best suited to invest, what to look for, and where to start. How Rental Properties Build Wealth Great rental properties create wealth through three primary channels that work together to compound returns over time: Cash Flow represents net monthly income after expenses. The formula: Total rent minus all expenses (mortgage, taxes, insurance, maintenance, management fees, etc.). A duplex renting for $3,300 monthly with $2,700 in expenses generates $600 monthly positive cash flow—money for profit or reinvestment. Appreciation refers to property value increases over time. Historically, U.S. home prices have risen approximately 3-5% annually. 4 A 5% annual appreciation on a $300,000 house adds $15,000+ to your equity annually from market gains alone. Equity growth also occurs as mortgage payments reduce loan principal. Ideally, tenant rent effectively covers these payments, so tenants are purchasing the property for you incrementally. If $500 monthly goes toward principal, you gain $6,000 in equity annually. The total return combines all three elements. While individual components might not create overnight wealth, together they compound impressively for patient investors. Who Should Invest in Rentals? Rental property investing isn’t for everyone. The most successful investors tend to share a few traits: Long-term wealth builders with financial stability and risk tolerance typically succeed. Investment properties require substantial down payments (typically 20-30%) plus cash reserves for maintenance and vacancies. You need stable finances with emergency funds before investing, as real estate is illiquid. 5 Detail-oriented, patient investors often find the greatest success. Nearly 90% of real estate investors encounter challenges—bad tenants, unexpected repairs, or incorrect pricing. 6 Smart investors educate themselves and analyze numbers carefully before buying. Hands-on, resourceful owners who can handle basic maintenance, repairs, and tenant management themselves also have an advantage. These investors can save thousands each year on property management and service fees, boosting overall returns. If you align with these traits, rental property investing can be a powerful tool for building lasting wealth. Where to Begin Your Investment Journey The first step is to contact an investment-savvy real estate agent. We can be an invaluable partner in finding and securing great properties by offering: Access to off-market deals that you can’t find on your own. We have extensive networks and can sometimes help you uncover properties before they are publicly listed. Expert market knowledge to help you choose the right property. We know which neighborhoods, property types, and home features are the most desirable to renters in our area. Deal analysis assistance to maximize your returns. We can help you estimate cash flow, cap rates, and return on investment. Ongoing network support that extends beyond closing. We maintain networks of reliable contractors, property managers, investor-friendly lenders, and insurance brokers. With the right guidance from day one, you can move forward with confidence and start building a portfolio that works for you. Your Rental Property Evaluation Checklist Not all rental properties offer equal investment potential. Smart investors use systematic criteria to identify truly great opportunities: Location & Market Analysis Location determines everything—tenant quality, rental demand, and appreciation potential. Focus on areas with strong rental demand near employment centers, universities, or transit systems ensuring steady tenant pools. Research local vacancy rates carefully. High neighborhood vacancy signals low demand, while low vacancy allows rent increases. Investigate safety and school quality—properties in low-crime areas with good schools attract stable, long-term tenants. 5 Evaluate regional economic trends beyond immediate neighborhoods. Growing employment opportunities drive housing demand. Research major employers that are expanding but avoid areas dependent on single industries. Check government infrastructure plans—new transit or development projects can boost values, but excessive new development might increase competition. 5 Financial Analysis Perform detailed cash flow analysis for every potential property. Calculate expected rent and subtract all expenses: mortgage payments, property taxes, insurance, HOA fees, management costs, maintenance reserves (budget 10% of rent), and vacancy allowances. The “1% rule” provides a quick assessment—monthly rent should equal at least 1% of purchase price plus any necessary repairs. Therefore, a $200,000 home should rent for at least $2,000 monthly. 5 Run sensitivity analysis: What happens if rents drop 5% or expenses increase 10%? Great properties remain profitable under various conditions. Property Condition & Carrying Costs Physical condition directly impacts returns. Older homes with outdated systems may require frequent, costly repairs. 7 Schedule professional inspections focusing on major components: roof, foundation, electrical, plumbing, and HVAC systems. Consider property layout—standard configurations like 3-bedroom/2-bathroom homes appeal to broader tenant bases than unusual layouts. Factor in capital expenditure timelines for major items needing replacement every 15-30 years. Research property tax rates and insurance costs carefully. Some areas have taxes so high that even nice properties won't generate profit. Get insurance quotes before purchasing, especially for properties in flood zones or disaster-prone areas requiring expensive additional coverage. Property Type Selection For most investors, single-family homes, condominiums, or townhomes offer the best starting point. Single-family homes typically attract longer-term tenants who treat the property as their home, resulting in steadier income. 5 Unless you’re planning to use your property as a short-term or vacation rental, avoid highly specialized properties like luxury mansions or tiny studios targeting niche markets with higher vacancy risks. “Bread and butter” 2-4 bedroom homes in middle-class neighborhoods form successful long-term rental portfolio foundations. 5 Due Diligence Requirements Verify all numbers independently. Research comparable rents for similar nearby properties ensuring realistic projections. 7 Check sales comparables to avoid overpaying. Schedule professional inspections and read reports thoroughly—unexpected problems can transform great deals into money pits. Understand local landlord-tenant laws covering eviction processes and deposit rules. Consult professionals, as needed, for valuable guidance. If this checklist seems overwhelming, don’t worry! We can help with each of these items. By following this checklist, we’ll separate high-performing rental opportunities from costly mistakes and position you for long-term success. BOTTOM LINE Great rental properties aren't found by chance—they're identified through systematic evaluation. Properties that build lasting wealth combine healthy cash flow, solid locations, sound physical condition, and strong growth potential. Success requires patience, proper analysis, and the right team. While markets fluctuate, well-chosen properties consistently reward investors through income, appreciation, and equity growth creating real wealth over time. Ready to start building wealth through rental property investment? The fundamentals we’ve outlined provide your foundation, but local market expertise and deal analysis make the difference between mediocre and exceptional investments. Let's discuss how these principles apply to current opportunities in your target market. Sources 1. Gallup - "Real Estate Still Best Investment" - https://news.gallup.com/poll/660161/stocks-fall-gold-rises-real-estate-best-investment.aspx 2. Realtor.com Research - "Investor Report June 2025" - https://www.realtor.com/research/investor-report-june-2025/ 3. Investopedia - "Real Estate vs. Stocks" - https://www.investopedia.com/investing/reasons-invest-real-estate-vs-stock-market/ 4. Redfin Blog - "Average home appreciation per year" - https://www.redfin.com/blog/average-home-appreciation-per-year/ 5. Investopedia - "10 Factors to Consider When Buying an Income Property" - https://www.investopedia.com/articles/mortgages-real-estate/08/buy-rental-property.asp 6. Clever Real Estate Survey - "Residential Real Estate Investing in 2024" - https://listwithclever.com/research/residential-real-estate-investing-2024/ 7. Investopedia - "5 Ways to Value a Real Estate Rental Property" - https://www.investopedia.com/articles/mortgages-real-estate/11/how-to-value-real-estate-rental.asp
August 6, 2025
As a homeowner, you’re likely diligent about the basics—mowing the lawn, touching up paint, and cleaning regularly. But what about the critical home maintenance tasks you don’t see every day? Research shows that home maintenance frequently takes a backseat, even with the best intentions. In fact, a recent survey found that 60% of homeowners have postponed necessary maintenance or repairs, while 40% admit to paying for a major home repair that could have been avoided with better upkeep. 1 Still, it’s not just about avoiding costly emergencies—it’s also about maximizing the return on your biggest investment. According to research by Thumbtack, homeowners who do put in the extra care are rewarded: Well-maintained homes sell for an average of 10% more. 2 Let’s explore 10 often overlooked home maintenance tasks and how they can save you thousands in long-term costs. 1. Gutter Cleaning: Your First Line of Protection Clogged gutters can cause water to overflow and seep into your home’s foundation, attic, or siding. Left unchecked, this can lead to foundation damage, rot, and even flooding. The real cost of neglect: While professional gutter cleaning averages $162 nationally (up to $390 for multi-story homes), water damage repair costs can add up—averaging $5,100 for foundation damage and $4,300 for a flooded basement. 3,4,5 Your action plan: Clean gutters at least twice annually—in spring and fall. Use a gutter scoop or hose to remove debris. Consider investing in gutter guards to reduce future clogs. This small task prevents major structural damage and prolongs the life of your home’s exterior. 2. HVAC Filter Replacement: Small Task, Major Impact A dirty HVAC filter reduces airflow, causes your system to work harder, and increases energy use. It can also lead to health concerns from trapped contaminants circulating in your home’s air. 6 The hidden costs: A neglected filter can lead to clamped-up coils, furnace failures, and sometimes a complete system replacement costing $4,000-$12,000. 6 Your maintenance routine: Replace filters every 1–3 months, depending on filter type, usage, and the number of pets in your home. Opt for MERV 8–13 filters for efficiency and air quality balance. 7 Schedule full-system annual servicing ($175–$550) to catch hidden issues early. 8 This simple task saves on energy bills (15-20% according to the Department of Energy) and extends your HVAC system’s lifespan. 8 3. Water Heater Flushing: Preventing Sediment Buildup Over time, sediment accumulates in your water heater tank, reducing efficiency and shortening the unit's lifespan. Left unchecked, this buildup can cause leaks or complete tank failure. The financial reality: Regular flushing prevents early replacement and may be required to maintain your water heater’s warranty. 9 You can do it yourself or hire a professional for around $160. 10 Your annual process: Turn off power and water supply to the unit Attach a hose to the drain valve and empty the tank completely Check your anode rod; it may need to be replaced every 3–5 years. This simple routine extends your water heater’s life and preserves energy efficiency. 4. Dryer Vent Cleaning: A Critical Safety Task Lint buildup in dryer vents doesn’t just reduce drying efficiency—it’s one of the leading causes of house fires in the U.S. 11 They also force your dryer to work harder and longer for each load. The cost factor: Professional dryer vent cleaning costs about $144 nationwide, while fire-related damage can run into the tens of thousands. 12 Your safety protocol: Clean dryer vents every six months using a brush kit, or call in a professional. Replace plastic ducts with rigid metal ones, which resist lint clogs. Monitor drying times—longer than usual may signal a blockage. This potentially life-saving task improves both safety and appliance efficiency. 5. Refrigerator Coil Cleaning: The 35% Energy Drain Your refrigerator’s coils help expel heat. When coated in dust, they force the compressor to work harder, increasing energy bills and shortening appliance lifespan. The efficiency impact: Dirty coils can increase energy use by up to 35% and, over time, can lead to costly repairs or replacement. 13 Your simple solution: Check your manufacturer’s guidelines; many recommend cleaning every six months. Locate coils behind or at the bottom of the unit and use a vacuum or coil brush to remove dust and debris. Keep condenser fan areas unobstructed. This $0 DIY task can trim your electricity bill—and prevent early breakdown. 6. Garage Door Lubrication: Prevents Costly Repairs A squeaky garage door means friction—and friction leads to wear on moving parts, costly spring damage, and failed openers. The mechanical reality: A new garage door opener can cost between $350-$1000 installed, but a can of lubricant only costs about $10. 14 Your annual routine: Check the manufacturer’s guidelines to choose the right lubricant for your garage door. Prioritize safety: Ensure the door is fully closed and cut the electricity. Check for any signs of damage before proceeding, and call in a pro if needed. 15 This simple task eliminates squeaks and avoids expensive mechanical repairs. 7. Sump Pump Testing: Your Basement's Guardian Your sump pump quietly protects your basement from water damage—but it needs testing to ensure it works when you need it most. The flood prevention factor: Sump pump failure during a storm can result in thousands of dollars in cleanup costs. 5 Your quarterly test: Pour water into the pit to ensure the float triggers the pump. Confirm pump and drainage are working correctly. Clean the inlet screen once per year to avoid clogs. This 10-minute check gives peace of mind and avoids major flood damage. 8. Chimney Cleaning: Preventing House Fires According to the National Fire Protection Association, the leading cause of home heating fires (30%) is a dirty chimney. 16 The fire prevention imperative: Professional cleaning costs between $100-$350 and is crucial for anyone burning wood. 17 The cost of ignoring this task includes chimney repairs and fire damage that can devastate homes. Your annual safety check: Hire a certified chimney sweep for inspection and cleaning, if needed. Use only seasoned wood to reduce creosote buildup. Install a chimney cap to block debris and critters. Professional chimney maintenance is a non-negotiable safety investment. 9. Roof Inspection: Protecting Your Shelter Your roof endures a lot—storms, sun, pests—and while damage may start small, it can become unbelievably costly if ignored. The structural stakes: A professional inspection averages $239, but some roofers will offer one for free. 18 Roof repair costs have surged 28.47% year-over-year. 19 A new roof now costs $9,500 on average. 20 Your inspection process: Twice per year, perform a DIY inspection for missing shingles, cracked flashing, and sagging areas. Check your attic for stains or leaks after rainfall. Consider a professional inspection every 1-2 years, depending on your risk factors. 18 Early intervention prevents thousands in repairs and helps retain resale value. 10. Water Pressure Monitoring: Protecting Your Plumbing Many homeowners never check their home’s water pressure, but levels above 80 psi can damage pipes, appliances, and fixtures throughout your home, leading to premature failures and leaks. The pressure problem: Water pressure that’s too high can damage your pipes and lead to expensive repairs or flooding. Pressure that’s too low can impact the performance of your faucets and appliances. 21 Your annual check: Use a water pressure gauge connected to an outdoor faucet. Ideal pressure: 40-60 psi. Install a regulator if it runs high. Monitor for sudden changes that could signal a plumbing issue. 21 This small check helps you avoid hidden damage to your entire plumbing system. Creating Your Home Maintenance Schedule Rather than reacting to emergencies, create a proactive plan. Here's a maintenance chart that puts it all in one place:
July 1, 2025
As we reach the midpoint of 2025, the U.S. housing market stands at a critical juncture. The frenzy of the pandemic-era real estate boom has long since cooled, but in its place we’re seeing a market searching for balance. Higher mortgage rates, cautious buyers, and rising home inventory are combining to reshape what it means to buy or sell a home in today’s climate. “The housing market is at a turning point,” says Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of real estate research at the National Association of Realtors. 1 This turning point brings both challenges and opportunities. Whether you’re buying, selling, or just keeping a close eye on the market, understanding these evolving trends is essential. In this comprehensive market update, we examine four key factors influencing today's housing market and provide actionable strategies for navigating these evolving conditions.